Free agency isn’t over, but the frenzy is. Most of the goalies that will be signed in free agency have likely been signed already, with the possible exceptions of Kevin Lankinen or Antti Raanta. Additionally, several goalies have changed teams via trade. I thought it’d be worthwhile to do a quick overview of all the goalies that have changed teams this offseason that are likely to see NHL playing time next season. I’ll be going through them in roughly chronological order. For goalie contracts, I’m using PuckPedia as my source for details. All other stats are my Expected Save model, adjusted for each season’s scoring environment.
Jacob Markstrom
Jacob Markstrom, traded to the New Jersey Devils, has been at the upper end of the non-elite tier of starters over the past three years. He has generally been solidly above average at both even strength and the penalty kill, but had a rough 2022-23. He is almost certainly on a downward trend given his age (34), but he may have a couple of good years left and only has two years left on his contract. Not a risk-free move for New Jersey by any means, but not an albatross in waiting either.
Darcy Kuemper
Darcy Kuemper, traded to the Los Angeles Kings, has been roughly an average starter over the last three seasons. However, that number is driven by a very strong 2021-22 season that he played behind a Cup-winning Colorado defense. In Washington he’s trended worse in consecutive seasons and lost his starting job. At 34 and with 3 more seasons on his contract, this move seems risky for the Kings, even if the purpose was dumping Pierre-Luc Dubois’s contract.
Alex Nedeljkovic
Alex Nedeljkovic re-signed by the Pittsburgh Penguins for two more seasons. Honestly, this move doesn’t make a ton of sense to me from Pittsburgh’s perspective. Nedeljkovic has been below average each of the last two seasons and didn’t exactly set the world on fire in Detroit either. As I noted on Twitter, his improved GSAx numbers last year were largely driven by his opponents missing the net more than usual. Shorter term and/or lower AAV (Pittsburgh gave him $2.5m per season) seem more appropriate given his recent body of work.
Linus Ullmark
Linus Ullmark, traded to the Ottawa Senators, has been one of the best goalies in the world over the last 3 seasons. The only potential causes for concern from Ottawa’s perspective are that he’s never been a full-time starter and that Boston’s defense may have been making him look better than he is. I don’t think the Senators should be too worried about who they’re getting though. For one thing, Ullmark graded out better than Swayman over the last two seasons. For another, there were signs in Buffalo that he was an above average goalie. Finally, with just one year left on his contract, if it turns out he was a product of Boston, it will be easy for Ottawa to move on.
Joonas Korpisalo
Joonas Korpisalo, traded to the Boston Bruins, has had a rough go of it over the last three seasons. An extremely strong 2022-23 masks what has otherwise been very below average results. Last season he was the very worst goalie in the league on the penalty kill, but roughly average at even strength. It will be interesting to see how he performs in a backup roll in Boston this season.
Juuse Saros
Juuse Saros, re-signed by the Nashville Predators to a monster eight-year deal, has been the absolute best goalie in the NHL over the last three seasons by my model. He has been remarkably consistent year-to-year in terms of overall results. Eight years is a long time, however, and last season was a step down from Saros from his previous two. In particular, his Saves over Expected at even strength has been trending steadily downward, and was hidden in 2022-23 by the best PK results in the NHL. Nashville should probably have been wary about extending him so long a year before his current contract expires.
Calvin Pickard
Calvin Pickard, re-signed for two years by the Edmonton Oilers, has an extremely limited sample to draw conclusions from, including not playing the NHL at all in 2022-23. Notably, however, he started two games during the Oilers’ Cup run and apparently that was enough. Low risk at $1m AAV, but the second year seems unnecessary from Edmonton’s perspective.
Jack Campbell
Jack Cambell, bought out by the Edmonton Oilers and signed to a one-year contract by the Detroit Red Wings, was a casualty of Pickard’s play and an inflated contract. The Oilers should never have given him such a large contract in the first place, but he was among the worst goalies in the league in 2022-23, leading to an extremely short rope for him last season. I don’t think he’s likely to see playing time in Detroit, given their other options. Rob Gherson has a great breakdown on what makes Campbell such a streaky goalie.
Logan Thompson
Logan Thompson, traded to the Washington Capitals, has put up strong results in limited opportunities in Vegas. An injury that gave Adin Hill a staring role in Vegas’s Cup-run likely cost him a full-time starting opportunity, but his results so far suggest he’s worth the gamble for Washington with one year left on his current contract.
Joseph Woll
Joseph Woll, re-signed for two years by the Toronto Maple Leafs, has improved in each of the last three seasons. Overall, this looks like a strong bet by the Leafs on a promising young goalie, though he has struggled with injuries.
Anthony Stolarz
Anthony Stolarz, signed for two years by the Toronto Maple Leafs, has, similarly to Woll, put up very strong results in limited playing time. He was especially strong at even strength last season, though only average in the two seasons prior. On the penalty kill he’s seen a continued trend downward and was below average last season. Not a bad option as a backup or tandem partner for Joseph Woll.
Laurent Brossoit
Laurent Brossoit, signed by the Chicago Blackhawks for two years, has been a backup goalie for the past three seasons. His two most recent seasons have been his strongest, but $3m AAV seems steep given how little he’s played.
Cam Talbot
Cam Talbot, signed by the Detroit Red Wings to a two year contract, joins his fourth team in four seasons. Despite being given a fair amount of opportunity, he has generally performed at or below expectations. His contract suggests he will be the backup over Alex Lyon, which may be a good role for him at this point in his career.
Scott Wedgewood
Scott Wedgewood, signed for two years by the Nashville Predators, has been a solid backup for the last three seasons. In his two full seasons in Dallas, he performed roughly as expected, though he was below average on the penalty kill and at even strength last season when his workload increased due to an extended injury to Jake Oettinger.
Casey DeSmith
Casey DeSmith, signed for three seasons by the Dallas Stars, has put up very strong results in each of the last three seasons. Saw a smaller role than he was used to in Vancouver last year, but continued to put up good results. He has a strong history in a tandem role and should be able to provide Oettinger with relief if/when Oettinger is injured.
Eric Comrie
Eric Comrie, signed for two years by the Winnipeg Jets, used to be one of my favorite goalie prospects. He performed decently enough as a backup over the last two seasons, though has trended slightly down in both results and opportunity. Between him and Kaapo Kahkonen, I’m not sure who will be the backup next season. Kahkonen has a slightly higher AAV, but Comrie has an extra year of term.
Kaapo Kahkonen
Kaapo Kahkonen, signed for one year by the Winnipeg Jets, has one of my favorite names in hockey and some of the worst results of any goalie in the league. His first season in San Jose ended decently, but he was the absolute worst goalie in the league at even strength in 2022-23. In 2023-24 he bounced back a bit in an admittedly bad situation, but was still near the bottom of the league in terms of results at even strength. Strangely, has has not been especially bad on the penalty kill.
Ilya Samsonov
Ilya Samsonov, signed for one season by the Vegas Golden Knights, is essentially the inverse of Jacob Markstrom, sandwiching one good season with two very bad ones to end up at just above the tier of very bad goalies. Replacing Thompson with Samsonov seems like a downgrade for Vegas. Rob Gherson had a great thread on Samsonov’s struggles last season.
James Reimer
James Reimer, signed for one year by the Buffalo Sabres, has performed below expected each of the past three seasons overall. He had a bit of a bounce-back at even strength last season, but was still below expected. He’s put up unusually strong numbers on the penalty kill however, including being one of the absolute best goalies down a man in 2021-22.
Summary
Ottawa, New Jersey, Toronto, and Washington stand out to me as teams that have clearly improved their goaltending. Vegas, Los Angeles, and Boston are the only teams that seem appreciably worse. The rest of the moves are not likely to make a huge difference to a team’s bottom line. I think Dallas has marginally improved while Detroit, Pittsburgh, and Chicago have left me confused with either the term or value of the contracts they’ve handed out. Lastly, given the hype around Yaroslav Askarov as a prospect, it seems strange to me that Nashville has apparently blocked him for two more years.